2026 Shanghai Spring FIC--Whey Protein Focus（WPC, MPC, SWP, etc.）
3月16号-19号，乳业在线的蛋白论坛和FIC均如期在上海顺利举行。乳清蛋白依旧是乳制品原料中最受瞩目的焦点。我们在这四天的行程中，密集的拜访了众多同行，现将市场信息汇总，跟各位分享。
From March 16 to 19, the Protein Forumof Dairy Onlineand FIC were successfully held in Shanghai. Whey protein continued to stand out as a key dairy ingredient. During the four-day event, we met with a large number of industry counterparts and have compiled key market updates for your reference.
首先，与春节前市场上观望为主的气氛相比，春节后乳清蛋白厂家报价，以一轮2000-3000欧元/吨加价幅度跳涨开局，彻底打消了绝大部分从业者的顾虑，开始积极的下场补货。这一点在乳业在线举办的蛋白论坛上感受特别明显，几乎所有的嘉宾都看法高度一致，坚定的看好后市。面对屡创新高的乳清蛋白行情，国内外的最新变化如何，我们汇总如下：
To begin with, in contrast to the wait-and-see sentiment in the market before the Spring Festival, whey protein manufacturers kicked off quotations the post-holiday period with a sharp surge by €2,000–3,000/t each round. This surge completely eased concerns among most industry players, who then began to actively restock. This sentiment was particularly evident at the Protein Forum hosted by Dairy Online, where nearly all speakers shared a highly consistent view and expressed strong optimism toward the market outlook. Against the backdrop of record-high whey protein prices, we have summarized the latest developments both domestically and internationally as follows:
第一、国内乳清蛋白市场信息汇总
I. Domestic Whey Protein Market Overview
乳清蛋白26年1-2月份，乳清蛋白进口量同比大跌18%。其中2月份仅进口1995吨，可能是因为春节放假原因，很多船公司延迟到春节后到港，导致2月报关数量减少，预计3月的进口数量环比会增长。
Whey protein imports during January–February 2026 saw a sharp decline of 18%YoY.In February alone, imports stood at only 1995t, likely due to the Spring Festival holiday, which caused many vessels to delay arrival until after the holiday, resulting in fewer customs declarations that month.Import volumesin March is expected to rise MoM.
25年11月到26年1月底，由于市场上对于乳清蛋白未来走势还有分歧，所以大部分客户并没有采购期货，中间大概有2-3个月的采购断档期。这部分减少的订单，我们认为会在2季度到货数量中反映出来。
From November 2025 to late January 2026, as the market held divided views on future trends, most customers held off on forward purchases, creating a roughly 2–3 month purchasing gap.It isbelievedthat thedrop in orders will show up in Q2 arrival volumes.
春节后乳清蛋白的价格快速上涨，据传是因为欧洲婴配巨头急于补货，在市场行情16000欧元左右的情况下，直接开价到18000欧元/吨，但要求蛋白工厂必须在未来两个月内优先生产其订单，导致整个市场价格飞涨，供应更加紧张。同时也必然导致蛋白工厂之前签订的订单发货时间会被推迟。
Whey protein prices surged after the Spring Festival.Reportedly, major European infant formula manufacturers rushed to restock by offering €18,000/t, well above the market price of around €16,000/t, in exchange for priority production over the next two months.This drove prices sharply higher, tightened supply, and delayed shipments of existing orders.
国产乳清蛋白产能终于鞋子落地，飞鹤、蒙牛以及传祁乳业等均已具备实际生产能力。但对于婴配企业来说，迫于国外脱盐乳清粉D90的断货压力，有限的乳清液用于生产D90满足自用，是其最优选择。国产WPC产能真正放量，可能还需要等到明年。根据我们的统计，明年国产的乳清蛋白理论产能，会在3000-4000吨，占到国内需求量的10%左右。
The long-awaited capacity expansion of domestic whey protein has finally materialized.Feihuo, Mengniu, Chuanqi Dairy and others now have actual production capacity. For infant formula firms, the priority is to produce D90 whey powder with limited liquidwhey for their own use amid global supply shortages. Large-scale domestic WPC output is not expected until next year. Based on our estimates, domestic whey protein capacity will reach 3,000–4,000 MT in 2027, covering about 10% of domestic demand.
2022-2026年国内主流乳清蛋白价格趋势图
2022-2026 Domestic Mainstream Whey Protein Price Trend
22-23年度价格从14000美金快速下跌到5000美金左右，相信国内头部乳清蛋白经销商印象尤其深刻。本轮的价格上涨顶点在哪里，可能有不同答案，但年底前看不到有下跌的可能。
During 2022–2023, prices plummeted from $14,000to around $5,000, a memory still fresh for top domestic whey protein distributors.Opinions vary on where this rally will peak, but a price decline is unlikely before year-end.
由于乳清蛋白价格高企，所带来乳蛋白（分离蛋白、牛奶蛋白、酪蛋白和脱脂粉）市场的连锁变化正在发生，我们相信，牛奶蛋白或者酪蛋白+乳清蛋白的组合配方，应用会越来越多，其他乳蛋白的价格也将跟随上涨。FIC展会前后，恒天然的MPC485型号报价跳涨2000美金一吨，这就是一个明显的信号。针对乳蛋白市场，我们近期会专门做一篇文章分析阐述。
As whey protein prices remain high, knock-on effects are emerging across other dairy proteins (WPI, MPC, caseinand SMP).We expect growing use of MPCor casein + WPCblends, with other dairy protein prices to follow.Fonterra’s quote of MPC485 jumped$2,000/taround the FIC show, which is a clear signal.We will release a dedicated article analysis on the dairy protein market shortly.
第二、美国乳清蛋白市场信息汇总
II. U.S. Whey Protein Market Overview
WPC80粉价格趋势图
WPC80 Price Trend Chart
美国乳清蛋白供应依旧紧张，3月初的报价，某头部品牌已经报到24000美金/吨，且限量供应。
U.S. whey protein supply remains tight.In early March, one top brand quoted $24,000/twith limited supply.
美国主要厂家2季度产能均已预售完毕，3季度供应也看不到缓解迹象。
Major U.S. producers have fully sold out Q2 capacity, with no relief in sight for Q3 supply.
乳清蛋白的应用范围在扩大，从营养补充剂延伸到咖啡、奶茶、薯片以及冰淇淋中，高蛋白作为一个卖点，逐步为消费者接受。
Whey protein is gaining wider use, from supplements to coffee, milk tea, chips and ice cream.High protein is gradually being accepted by consumers as a selling point.
WPC34粉价格趋势图
WPC34 Price Trend Chart
受乳清液供应紧张影响，WPC34的价格也呈加速上涨迹象。26年一季度，WPC报价3582美金，价格环比上涨17%。
Tight whey supply has driven WPC34prices higher.In Q1 2026, WPC was quoted at $3,582/t, up 17% MoM.
相比欧洲同类产品报价，美国WPC34价格处于低位，预计后期仍将加速上涨。
U.S. WPC34 is still cheaper than European equivalents,so further sharp price gains are expected.
美国乳清蛋白出口数据图
U.S. Whey Protein Export Data Chart
因为司美格鲁肽及其仿制药的畅销，美国的需求持续增长，1月出口5370吨。从数据来看，其产能虽然有个位数的增长，但优先满足其国内市场，出口数量同比大跌36%。这一点，欧洲也有类似情况出现。
Driven by strong sales of semaglutide and generics, U.S. demand keeps rising, with 5,370 texported in January.While capacity edged up slightly, supply prioritizes the domestic market, sending exports down 36% YoY.A similar trend is seen in Europe.
美国2011年-2026年WPC产品产能数据图
2011–2026U.S. WPC Production Capacity Chart
WPC（34+80）产能26月1月份1.82万吨，同比微增4.3%。
WPC (34+80) production capacity in January 2026 was 18,200 t, up 4.3% YoY.
第三、欧洲乳清蛋白市场信息汇总
III. European Whey Protein Market Summary
欧洲最新乳清蛋白价格趋势图
Latest European Whey Protein Price Trend Chart
本次FIC展会，根据欧洲同行跟我们反映的情况，最高报价已经达到25000美金，且2季度均无货可售，3季度的货源也十分紧张。考虑到2季度因为婴配企业补货导致的其他客户订单的推迟，据德国某头部WPC工厂销售人员表示，他们3季度接到的需求，已经是他们理论产能的两倍。如何平衡全球不同国家的超额需求，可能才是乳清蛋白工厂最大的挑战。
According to European partners at the recent FIC show, top quotes reached $25,000/t, with no availability in Q2 and very tight supply in Q3. Due to Q2 restocking by infant formula manufacturers, orders from other buyers were delayed. A sales manager at a leading German WPC plant said Q3 demand was already double their theoretical production capacity. Balancing excess global demand across regions has become the biggest challenge for whey protein producers.
本周欧洲主流WPC80报价在20000-23000欧元之间，但有价无市，供应量寥寥，3季度发船的报价预计要5月或者6月才能出来。
This week, mainstream European WPC80 was quoted at €20,000–23,000/t, but with little actual supply available. Pricing for Q3 shipments is expected to be released in May or June.
西欧产地的WPC35基本停产，除了德国和荷兰个别工厂生产外，一柜难求。按照其工厂远期报价，且供应及其有限，国内销售价格突破50元一公斤只是时间问题。目前只有土耳其产地还有少量35粉可售，性价比也有足够吸引力。
WPC35 production in Western Europe has largely halted, with only a few plants in Germany and the Netherlands still operating, making each load extremely hard to secure. Given forward quotes and severely limited supply, domestic selling prices exceeding ￥50/kg is only a matter of time. Currently only Turkish-origin WPC35 is available in small volumes, with attractive cost performance.
欧洲本土，使用司美格鲁肽及其替代药物的人群基数也在扩大，出于对未来价格的涨价预期，越来越多的工厂也不愿意报远期价格，转为寻求现货交易，以便利益最大化。并且应用范围呈现从功能食品到普通食品的扩散，在冰淇淋、麦片、零食中均有添加。从这一点来说，欧洲和美国一样，基于本土的强劲需求，供应出口的量都在缩减。
In Europe, the user base of semaglutide and GLP-1 alternatives is also growing. Amid expectations of further price hikes, more factories are unwilling to offer future pricing and are shifting to spot transactions to maximize profits. Meanwhile, whey protein applications are expanding from functional foods to general foods, including ice cream, cereals and snacks. Like the US, strong domestic demand in Europe has led to reduced export volumes.
因为美伊冲突的影响，欧洲出口中东的奶酪订单受阻，如美伊冲突不能快速结束，则欧洲2季度的奶酪产能将被迫减少，将进一步加剧乳清液的供需矛盾。欧洲出口到中东的奶酪，不同渠道数据差异较大，比较可信的为40-50万吨/年，以此预估，受影响的奶酪订单约为10万吨。这也就意味着，欧洲二季度的乳清液产能同比有可能将被迫减少3-4%。
U.S.-Iran tensions have disrupted European cheese exports to the Middle East. If the conflict persists, European cheese production in Q2 will be cut, worsening whey supply shortages. Data on European cheese exports to the Middle East vary across sources, with a credible estimate at 400,000–500,000t per year. Based on this, around 100,000t of orders are affected.This means Europe's liquid whey output in Q2 is likely to be forced down by 3–4% year-on-year.
第四、新西兰乳清蛋白市场信息汇总
IV. New Zealand Whey Protein Market Summary
本月恒天然释放了48吨392产能，2季度发船。最后以23000美金价格成交。另外，迫于成本压力，越来越多的运动营养客户也开始使用热稳或者热稳凝胶型号的WPC产品，不再局限只使用速溶型号。
This month, Fonterra released 48t of WPC392 capacity for Q2 shipment, which was finally sold at $23,000/t. Meanwhile, facing cost pressure, more sports nutrition customers are switching to WPC HS or WPC HGS products, rather than only using instant type.
据传某头部婴配品牌乳企，给恒天然下了几百吨热稳型号大单，本财年估计恒天然不会再有多余货源供应。
Rumour has it that a leading infant formula brand has placed a several-hundred-tonne order for WPC HS with Fonterra. Fonterra is expected to have no spare supply left for the rest of the financial year.
速溶型号480、450供应更加紧张，预估今年4季度甚至27年1季度才能有更多货源提供。
Supply of WPC 480 instant type and WPC 450 instant type is even tighter, with additional volumes not expected until Q4 2026 or Q1 2027.
因货源有限，恒天然的销售策略也在发生变化，将有限的货源优先供应给终端工厂，代理渠道的货源越来越少；就算这部分零散货源，也采取竞拍方式，价高者得。从这一点来说，国内流通渠道的恒天然WPC供应情况，不容乐观。
With tight supply, Fonterra is shifting its sales focus to end factories, cutting supply to distributors. Remaining scattered stocks are allocated through bidding at the highest price. Hence, Fonterra WPC supply in China’s market channels faces a bleak outlook.
综上所述，我们再来预测一下，未来几个月，乳蛋白（乳清蛋白、牛奶蛋白、酪蛋白、乳清粉）市场会发生什么：
In summary, we forecast the trends for milk protein products (WPC, MPC, casein, whey powder) in the coming months as follows:
1、所有的市场数据似乎都表明，乳清蛋白价格还将持续上涨，在26年年底之前，看不到跌价的可能。在展会上，最激进的观点，甚至认为本年度WPC80会涨到250元一公斤。如果是使用端，到2026年年底前库存还有缺口，现在建仓，虽亡羊补牢，但为时未晚。
All market data point to a continued rise in whey protein prices, with no decline expected through the end of 2026. At the exhibition, the most aggressive view even suggests WPC80 could reach￥250/kg this year. For end-users facing inventory shortages by 2026-year-end, building positions now, though late, is better late than never.
但从贸易端来说，我还是坚持我在蛋白论坛的观点，要保持足够冷静。22年-23年的那一轮大跌，每一位代理商都是亏了大钱的。止盈亦是止损，我们也坚定的看涨乳清蛋白，但用未来期货行情5%的利润，搏未来不可控的风险，是否有必要坚持采购，是否有其他正常利润的单品可以选择，每个企业的答案会有不同。
However, from a trading perspective, I still hold the view I expressed at the Protein Forum: we must stay level-headed. Every trader suffered heavy losses during the sharp price drop in 2022–2023. Taking profits is also cutting losses.We are also firmly bullish on whey protein, but is it necessary to keep purchasing just to chase uncontrollable risks with only 5% potential profit in forward deals? And are there alternative products with reasonable margins available? Each company will have its own answer.
2、按照目前乳清蛋白的报价，一定会有部分客户更换配方或者干脆停止生产。坚持购买的刚需客户，我们分为四类：
At current whey protein price levels, some customers will definitely reformulate or even halt production. We divide the rigid-demand buyers into four categories:
① 婴配+特医客户，预计每个月采购量为1000-1200吨；
Infant formula & medical food customers: estimated 1,000–1,200tper month；
② 运动营养头部品牌方，预计每个月采购量为600-800吨；
Leading sports nutrition brands: estimated 600–800 tper month；
③ 酸奶+乳饮料企业。预计每个月采购量为1000-1200吨；
Yogurt & dairy beverage manufacturers: estimated 1,000–1,200 tper month；
④ 烘焙渠道及其他。预计每个月采购量200吨左右。我们预估乳清蛋白今年使用量为3000吨左右/月。
Bakery and other channels: around 200 tper month. We forecast total monthly whey protein consumption in China at approximately 3,000t for this year.
所以，我们需要关注两点：1、每个月进口量的变化，小于3000吨则意味着供小于需，反之亦然，2、刚需客户群体本身也可能发生变化。比如，国内头部的乳饮料工厂，3块5一瓶的乳饮料，能够承受多久200元/公斤的乳清蛋白采购成本？大学生一个月2000块的生活费，可以买几罐进口乳清蛋白？
Therefore, we need to focus on two key points: 1. Changes in monthly import volumes. If below 3,000t, it indicates supply shortage; vice versa. 2. Potential shifts in the rigid-demand customer base. For example, how long can a major domestic dairy beverage factory afford whey protein at ￥200/kg for its products priced at 3.5 RMBper bottle? With a monthly living expense of 2,000 RMB, how many jars of imported whey protein can a college student buy?
3、乳清蛋白80粉价格高企，用牛奶蛋白、酪蛋白等其他乳蛋白产品部分替代WPC80，是客户主动或者被动的选择。据我们了解，国内外均有大型企业开始调整配方，或者调整销售重心，更多的推广复合乳蛋白的产品。我们坚定的看好这一方向，牛奶蛋白和酪蛋白今年有望迎来又一轮需求爆发的机会点。
Amid high WPC80 prices, customers are actively or passively switching to other milk proteins such as MPCand casein as partial replacements. We understand that major enterprises both at home and abroad have begun adjusting formulations or sales strategies to promote more blended milk protein products. We are strongly optimistic about this trend, and milk protein and casein are expected to see another surge in demand this year.
4、WPC35和乳清粉，因受制于乳清液产能，从春节前就开始暴涨，目前来看，国外期货报价还没有到达最高点。今天，我们继续坚持春节前的判断：在未来的几个月内，这两个单品的上涨幅度，有可能会高于WPC80粉。到年底前，鉴于乳清粉目前的情况，相比于价格下跌的风险，供应的风险更不可控，分布建仓可能是最优选择。
Driven by tight liquid whey capacity, WPC35 and whey powder have surged since before the Spring Festival, and overseas forward quotes have yet to peak. We believe these two products may see larger price increases than WPC80 in the coming months. Today, we maintain our previous forecast made before the Spring Festival: in the coming months, these two product varieties are likely to see a larger price increase than WPC80. Between now and the year-end, given the current market conditions of whey powder, supply risks are more uncontrollable than price downside risks.Gradually building positions in batches may be the optimal strategy.
乳清粉近五年的历史最高点为22年的5月份，价格涨到1800美金。按照目前的趋势，乳清粉价格突破最高点也是时间问题。
The all-time high for whey powder prices over the past five years was reached in May 2022, when prices surged to $1,800 per ton. Given the current trend, it is only a matter of time before whey powder prices break through this historical peak.
阿根廷产地乳清粉由于乳清液原料短缺，最近半年鲜有货源放出，现货市场最高已经涨到17元/公斤以上。
Whey powder from Argentina has been scarce in the past six months due to whey raw material shortages, with spot prices rising above ￥17/kg.
西欧产地的3季度甜乳清粉报价，最高报价已经超过1600欧元/吨，且供应紧张。
For Western European-origin sweet whey powder, Q3 quotations have exceeded €1,600 per metric ton at the high end, and supply remains tight.
乌拉圭产地的脱盐乳清粉D40，因为近期设备检修以及对远期行情持乐观态度，厂家并不急于报价。
Suppliers of Uruguayan whey powder D40 hold off quotations amid recent equipment maintenance and optimistic forward market sentiment.
白俄和俄罗斯产地的乳清粉货源，也纷纷调高销售价格至12元-13元/KG之间,有部分厂家的4季度之前的产能均已预售完毕。
Suppliers from Belarus and Russia have also raised their whey powder prices to 12–13 RMB/kg, and some manufacturers have fully pre-sold their production capacity available before Q4.
5、乳清粉市场，未来的风险点可能在于：因为进口乳清粉的价格持续上涨，会有一部分客户使用脱脂粉替代乳清粉，那么需要我们评估的是--这部分减少的乳清粉用量和乳清粉实际进口量减少的数量，哪个更多？未来几个月的数据，会给我们答案。
In the whey powder market, potential future risks may lie in: as import whey powder prices keep rising, some buyers will switch to skim milk powder as a substitute for whey powder. We therefore need to assess which is larger — the reduced consumption of whey powder from substitution, or the actual decline in whey powder import volume. Data in the coming months will give us the answer.
别人恐惧时我贪婪，别人贪婪时我恐惧。知易行难，与诸君共勉。
Be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy.Easier said than done, though may we all keep this in mind.
部分数据来源：
美国 USDA
意大利 CIAL
欧洲 Vesper
备注：本文所有内容为作者个人观点，仅作行业交流学习用，勿做商业用途，不构成任何投资建议，感谢各位同行专家在本文撰写过程中给予的资讯和意见支持！
Note: All content in this article represents the author's personal views. It is intended solely for industry exchange and learning purposes, shall not be used for commercial purposes, and does not constitute any investment advice. We would like to thank all peer experts for their information and opinions provided during the writing of this article!
往期文章：
